mornin’ merrymakers 🔮✨📊
you know that feeling when you say something bold at the beginning of the year and then spend the next eleven months terrified you'll be completely wrong?
that was me in january when i published my 5 spicy store predictions for 2025.
i've spent most of my career with "planning" or "strategy" in my job title, which means i'm used to making forecasts. but publishing predictions publicly was a a whole different level of accountability.
spreadsheets don't judge you.
subscribers absolutely do.
so now it's december & i'm grading myself.
proud to give myself a 4.5/5, which is an A- which is also my blood type.
what surprised me most was that 3 of my predictions came true at a scale i completely underestimated. i thought we'd see experimentation. instead, we saw billion-dollar commitments. retail went all-in on these.
so let's break down what happened…
in today’s letter, you'll learn:
🎭 entertainment explosion (underestimated the scale)
💊 med-tail miscalculation (my partial miss)
♻️ resale revolution (total vindication)
📱 employee content takeover (very much happening)
❤️ humanity comeback (self-checkout's retreat)
🎭 entertaining is the new shopping
predicted that stores would transform into event venues and traveling museums.
what actually happened was that experiential retail hit $132 billion in 2025, more than doubling since 2020.
this is driven by the fact that 80% of consumers are more likely to purchase after a positive retailtainment experience. properties with retailtainment saw 25% uptick in visits and 22% increase in dwell time.
the scale blew past expectations:
netflix dropped their first two XXL “houses” in philly & dallas
meow wolf signed a 20 year agreement for 75,000 sq ft at manhattan's pier 17
museum of ice cream announced a XXL permanent location in la & a XXL vegas flagship (you can so “i do” in an ice cream wedding chapel)
simon property group committed $8 billion to experiential mall upgrades
verdict: nailed it, but should have predicted even bigger ✅
💊 empowerment is the new service
predicted med-tail would explode with retail clinics, longevity centers, and wellness memberships.
what actually happened was that traditional retail clinics crashed hard. BUT consumer-pay wellness thrived.
the failures were dramatic:
walmart closed all 51 health centers (weeks after announcing expansion plans)
walgreens shuttered 160+ villagemd clinics with $5.8 billion impairment charge
but consumer-pay wellness exploded:
amazon one medical expanded to 200+ locations plus pharmacy kiosks
next health operates 16 locations, plans to double in 2026
global longevity market hit $600 billion in 2025
the pattern is that traditional healthcare within insurance reimbursement fails, but specialized, consumer-pay, membership-based wellness thrives.
verdict: half right…
♻️ ethical is the new luxury
predicted resale platforms would become standard and sustainability would equal premium positioning.
shopping secondhand first is really catching momentum.
93% of americans bought secondhand in the past year.
47% now consider resale value before buying new.
u.s. recommerce market hit $64.29 billion in 2025, growing 11.2% annually.
the resale winners:
rei re/supply achieved independent profitability, doubled business since 2019, opened second standalone store
thredup expanded to 50+ brand partners (gap, athleta, adidas, walmart, jcpenney, abercrombie), 95% spike in new buyers
the realreal reported record q3 with gmv up 20% to $520 million
b corp certification grew to almost 10K companies globally
verdict: completely validated ✅
🤳 engaging is the new marketing
predicted employee-generated content (egc) would get 8x more engagement than brand content. this was verified by multiple sources and examples.
job market data shows emergence of in-store content roles, though not yet ubiquitous. "content creator tetail" positions showed salaries ranging $123,000-$185,00.
the egc superstars:
fleet feet: 305% organic engagement growth year-over-year, store content now 25% of instagram posts
foot locker: 270% growth in tiktok followers, one employee video hit 6 million views
papa john's: 183 million views on single employee video
retailers built systematic programs with defined metrics and documented roi. content creator retail positions now command $123,000-$185,000 salaries.
verdict: true & stronger than expected ✅
❤️ empathy is the new efficiency
predicted human connection would become more valuable as ai proliferated.
this was validated in a way i didn’t fully expect by the collapse of self-checkout by many retailers including dollar general, target, five below, & walmart.
meanwhile, human-delivered personalization accelerated:
nordstrom hired first-ever "director of luxury styling"
clienteling communications per store up 28% year-over-year
emotional intelligence (ei) market grew to $6.84 billion, projected $16.7 billion by 2035. brands are investing in training to enhance leadership skills, improve team dynamics, & foster better customer relationships.
verdict: strongly validated.
and the thing is… none of this is slowing down.
2025 didn’t feel like a peak for any of these predictions, just the opening act. entertainment is scaling up, wellness is splintering into new subcultures, resale is going mainstream, employees are becoming media, and humans are back on the frontline.
very strong signals of what’s to come next year.
so yes, i’m already sketching my bets for 2026. prediction-making is a sport & i’m lacing up again in january.
p.s. what are your 2026 predictions? id love to hear them!